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Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy

Pratt, Stephen and Blake, Adam and Swann, Peter (2013) Dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty: Uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy. Economic Modelling, 32 . 429 - 439. ISSN 0264-9993

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This paper develops a new method for incorporating uncertainty within a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The method involves incorporating uncertainty into the model by formulating different states of the world or paths that the economy may take. The risk then is that on one or more of the paths, there may be an external demand shock, for example, an exogenous shock in tourism demand. The multi-sector forward-looking CGE model with risk shows the impact of uncertainty on the economy and how households and industry respond to the presence of uncertainty. The results show that, where there is an asymmetric shock, the possibility of a future tourism demand shock creates a welfare loss. The welfare gains along the non-shocked path are a result of household's risk aversion and their substituting resources away from the shocked path. The difference in the monetary values of the welfare on the different paths can be interpreted as the ‘price’ of the risk. It is the price households would pay to remove the possibility of the tourism shock. Therefore, this research was able to quantify the monetary value of the risk. This method can be used in scenario modelling for other adverse contingent events, such as the uncertainty of climate change impacts, and agriculture production risks.

Item Type: Journal Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model, Uncertainty, Risk, Tourism
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Faculty of Business and Economics (FBE) > School of Tourism and Hospitality Management
Depositing User: Stephen Pratt
Date Deposited: 30 Oct 2018 01:30
Last Modified: 30 Oct 2018 01:30

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