Predicting hotel occupancies with public data: An application of OECD indices as leading indicators

Tang, Candy Mei Fung and King, Brian and Pratt, Stephen (2017) Predicting hotel occupancies with public data: An application of OECD indices as leading indicators. Tourism Economics, 23 (5). pp. 1096-1113. ISSN 1354-8166

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Abstract

This study demonstrates the value of using readily available Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) indicators to estimate hotel occupancy trends in a particular territory (Hong Kong) drawing upon almost four decades of data (1972-2010). The indicators predict the economic climate at global, regional and national levels by providing comprehensive statistically based economic information. They should be of particular benefit for resource-constrained small and/or independent hotel operations for whom accurate occupancy predictions facilitate a more targeted approach to strategic investments. Using the OECD indicators offers hoteliers an alternative to acquiring expensive data and/or consultant inputs. The article shows the merit of OECD composite indicators generally and of the consumer confidence index in particular as publicly available and reliable data which can provide hoteliers with early signals about shifting demand. It contributes to tourism economics by demonstrating the merit of indices as a supplement to both established demand forecasts and as an input to hotel revenue management systems.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Business and Economics (FBE) > School of Tourism and Hospitality Management
Depositing User:	Stephen Pratt
Date Deposited:	14 Feb 2019 22:27
Last Modified:	14 Feb 2019 22:27
URI:	http://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/11210

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