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Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

Ongoma, Victor and Chen, Haishan and Gao, Chujie and Nyongesa, Aston and Polong, Francis (2018) Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble. Natural Hazards, 90 (2). pp. 901-920. ISSN 0921-030X

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    Abstract

    This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall (temperature) events in the twenty-first century based on 18 (24)-member multimodel simulations of models participating in phase 5 of the Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The study employed extreme indices defined by the WMO’s Experts Team on Climate Change Detection Indices, under two radiative forcing scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two 30-year time periods, mid- (2021–2050) and end (2071–2100) of the twenty-first century, are considered for investigation of extremes, relative to the baseline period (1961–1990). Mann–Kendall test statistic and Sen’s slope estimator are used to investigate trend. Temperature shows a remarkable increase with an increase in radiative forcing. A sharp augmentation in temperature is projected towards the end of the twenty-first century. There will be almost zero cool days and cold nights by the end of the century. Very wet and extremely very wet days increase, especially over Uganda and western Kenya. Variation in maximum 1-day precipitation (R × 1 day) and maximum 5-day precipitation amount shows a remarkable increase in variance towards the end of the twenty-first century. Although the results are based on relatively coarse resolution data, they give likely conditions that can be utilized in long-term planning and be relied on in advanced studies.

    Item Type: Journal Article
    Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
    G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography
    Divisions: Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment
    Depositing User: Victor Ongoma
    Date Deposited: 12 Apr 2019 13:38
    Last Modified: 12 Apr 2019 13:38
    URI: http://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/11457
    UNSPECIFIED

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