Alternative approach to estimating crash costs for cost - benefit analysis using Monte Carlo simulation

Prakash, Surya (2018) Alternative approach to estimating crash costs for cost - benefit analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. [Conference Proceedings]

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Abstract

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is used as a tool to inform investment decisions in both the government and private sectors. An essential part of any CBA for road infrastructure projectsisthe calculation of crash cost savings. Currently, crash cost savings are typically addressed via deterministic methods, as the product of projected future traffic volumes and the expected accident rate of the road after project completion. Road traffic crashes, especially fatality and casualty crashes, typically occur only infrequently, and at unpredictable intervals, this doesn’t naturally accord with the deterministic model.This paper demonstrates how probabilistic methods can be applied to better account for crash cost savings in CBAs.The benefits of this approach are demonstrated via an example.

Item Type:	Conference Proceedings
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General)
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Computing, Information and Mathematical Sciences
Depositing User:	Surya Prakash
Date Deposited:	07 Oct 2020 23:33
Last Modified:	12 Oct 2020 03:03
URI:	http://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/12328

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