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Bayesian method for estimating Weibull parameters for wind resource assessment in the tropical region: a comparison between two-parameter and three - parameter Weibull distributions

Khan, Mohammad G.M. and Ahmed, Mohammed R. (2023) Bayesian method for estimating Weibull parameters for wind resource assessment in the tropical region: a comparison between two-parameter and three - parameter Weibull distributions. Wind Energy Science, 8 (8). pp. 1277-1298. ISSN 2366-7621

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Abstract

The two-parameter Weibull distribution has garnered much attention in the assessment of wind energy potential. The estimation of the shape and scale parameters of the distribution has brought forth a successful tool for the wind energy industry. However, it may be inappropriate to use the two-parameter Weibull distribution to assess energy at every location, especially at sites where low wind speeds are frequent, such as the tropical region. In this work, a robust technique for wind resource assessment using a Bayesian approach for estimating Weibull parameters is first proposed. Secondly, the wind resource assessment techniques using a two-parameter Weibull distribution and a three-parameter Weibull distribution, which is a generalized form of two-parameter Weibull distribution, are compared. Simulation studies confirm that the Bayesian approach seems a more robust technique for accurate estimation of Weibull parameters. The research is conducted using data from seven sites in tropical region from 1o N of Equator to 21o South of Equator. Results reveal that a three-parameter Weibull distribution with non-zero shift parameter is a better fit for the wind data having a higher percentage of low wind speeds (0-1 ms-1) and low skewness. However, wind data with a smaller percentage of low wind speeds and high skewness showed better results with a two-parameter distribution that is a special case of three-parameter Weibull distribution with zero shift parameter. The proposed distribution can be incorporated in commercial software like WAsP to improve the accuracy of wind resource assessments. The results also demonstrate that the proposed Bayesian approach and application of a three-parameter Weibull distribution are extremely useful for accurate estimation of wind power density.

Item Type: Journal Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Wind energy resource assessment; Two-parameter Weibull distribution; Three-parameter Weibull distribution; Bayesian estimation method.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Divisions: School of Information Technology, Engineering, Mathematics and Physics (STEMP)
Depositing User: M. Rafiuddin Ahmed
Date Deposited: 20 Oct 2023 02:02
Last Modified: 20 Oct 2023 02:02
URI: http://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/14154
UNSPECIFIED

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