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Nonlinear dynamics of the observed HIV - positive population size in Fiji

Vanualailai, Jito and Deo, Arun and Sharma, Bibhya N. and Chandra, Subhash (2003) Nonlinear dynamics of the observed HIV - positive population size in Fiji. Pacific Health Dialogue: Journal of Community Health and Clinical Medicine for the Pacific, 10 (2). pp. 45-52. ISSN 1015-7867

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Abstract

In this paper, the reported numbers of HIV-positive individuals in Fiji between and including the years 1989 and 2002 have been used to study the dynamics of the observed HIV-positive population size. The Fiji data showed a pattern that appears to begin to approximate the "S" shaped growth pattern. It is well-known in the mathematics literature that this nonlinear pattern is a natural growth phenomenon and that there are suitable mathematical equations--from the classical Verhulst equation to the recent Tsoularis equation--that can be used to study it. These equations generate two-dimensional curves, the uses of which are case-dependent. In this paper, the curves used are the Logistic Curve and the Gompertz Curve, which are known to be relatively accurate in predicting the short-term behaviour of the observed HIV-positive population size at the initial stages of growth. This study showed that the curves, based on the 1989-2002 data, gave the scenarios in which new reported cases could stabilize by 2005 or 2013. Based on the 1989-2001 data, both curves gave the worst-case scenario of continuous increase till the year 2020 when the numbers could begin to stabilize.

Item Type: Journal Article
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Biological and Chemical Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Computing, Information and Mathematical Sciences
Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Engineering and Physics
Depositing User: Ms Mereoni Camailakeba
Date Deposited: 24 Apr 2003 02:34
Last Modified: 28 Oct 2015 09:50
URI: http://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/2843
UNSPECIFIED

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