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Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team

Qiu, Richard and Wu, Doris and Dropsy, Vincent and Petit, Sylvain and Pratt, Stephen and Ohe, Yasuo (2021) Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Asia and Pacific team. Annals of Tourism Research, 88 (103155). pp. 1-16. ISSN 0160-7383

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    It is important to provide scientific assessments concerning the future of tourism under the un-certainty surrounding COVID-19. To this purpose, this paper presents a two-stage three-scenario forecast framework for inbound-tourism demand across 20 countries. The main findings are as follows: in the first-stage ex-post forecasts, the stacking models are more accurate and robust, especially when combining five single models. The second-stage ex-ante forecasts are based on three recovery scenarios: a mild case assuming a V-shaped recovery, a medium one with a V/U-shaped, and a severe one with an L-shaped. The forecast results show a wide range of recovery (10%–70%) in 2021 compared to 2019. This two-stage three-scenario framework contributes to the improvement in the accuracy and robustness of tourism demand forecasting.

    Item Type: Journal Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19; Tourism forecasting competition; Stacking models; Recovery scenarios; Judgmental-adjusted forecasting
    Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
    H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
    Divisions: School of Business and Management (SBM)
    Depositing User: Stephen Pratt
    Date Deposited: 24 Feb 2021 14:52
    Last Modified: 24 Feb 2021 14:52

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