Dubai’s record precipitation event of 16 April 2024 – A diagnosis

Sian, Kenny T.C.L.K. and Sagero, Philip and Kebacho, Laban L. and Ongoma, Victor (2025) Dubai’s record precipitation event of 16 April 2024 – A diagnosis. Atmospheric Research, 315 . NA. ISSN 0169-8095

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Abstract

Understanding climate extremes is crucial for improving forecasting accuracy to minimise the associated loss of lives and property. On 16 April 2024, Dubai, an arid desert region in the United Arab Emirates, recorded unprecedented very heavy precipitation, causing widespread flooding and significant socio-economic impacts. This study investigates the atmospheric conditions that contributed to the event using hourly data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' fifth-generation reanalysis. A composite analysis of precipitation and atmospheric conditions during the event is conducted. Findings reveal enhanced convective activities, likely modulated by large-scale flow patterns and strong low-level convergence associated with moisture transport dynamics from the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Persian Gulf. Strong cyclonic circulation anomalies in the lower to mid-troposphere supported persistent upward vertical motion, promoting deep convective cloud formation. High convective available potential energy and a pronounced mid-level atmospheric trough were evident, indicators of an unstable atmosphere conducive to deep convection. Strong upper-level subtropical jets further facilitated and sustained the convective processes. The combined atmospheric conditions from the lower to upper troposphere provided conditions highly favourable for deep cloud formation, leading to the extreme precipitation event. This study highlights the importance of understanding factors, such as moisture transport dynamics, low-pressure systems, and upper-level jets, in forecasting extreme precipitation in the UAE region. Improving the knowledge of these circulations is essential for enhancing the accuracy of climate extremes forecasting and monitoring, enabling better preparedness and effective, practical anticipatory measures.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GB Physical geography
Divisions:	School of Agriculture, Geography, Environment, Ocean and Natural Sciences (SAGEONS)
Depositing User:	Philip Sagero
Date Deposited:	24 Mar 2025 22:19
Last Modified:	24 Mar 2025 22:20
URI:	https://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/14830

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