Water, people and climate-change exposure in the Western Pacific: Anticipating the arrival of a ‘perfect storm’

Nunn, Patrick D. and Kumar, Roselyn and Elrick-Barr, Karmen and Glover, Mark and Korovulavula, Isoa T. and Kotra, Krishna K. and Macdonald, Ben and Ram, Arishma R. and Smith, Timothy and Thomsen, Dana (2025) Water, people and climate-change exposure in the Western Pacific: Anticipating the arrival of a ‘perfect storm’. PLOS Water, 4 (7). pp. 1-21. ISSN 2767-3219

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Abstract

As climate change accelerates, there is a growing need to ensure that sustainable adaptive solutions are effective and equitable, especially in the Global South where many countries depend on external funding to attain water security. Perceptions of vulnerability and need among Pacific Island Countries are not always based on a region-wide evidence base. This study examines ten Western Pacific Island countries (Federated States of Micronesia [FSM], Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia [French dependency], Palau, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Vanuatu) that include both high-island groups and low-island (atoll) groups. This study evaluates the equitability of the distribution of external funding for attaining water security. Needs are evaluated in terms of (a) population densities and growth compared with water and land availability and (b) the uneven distribution of water-focused livelihood stressors across this region, specifically those linked to climate variability, sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and geophysical phenomena. Measures of comparative exposure of people in these countries show that those living along high-island coasts, especially in Fiji, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, are considerably more exposed than their counterparts elsewhere, especially in atoll nations which have received greater amounts of per capita climate funding for water security. Results show that there is a ‘perfect storm’ brewing in the high-island nations of the Southwest Pacific resulting from their comparatively high exposure to livelihood stressors. This could be addressed by reassessing the distribution of external climate funding within the Western Pacific region. Key findings are the importance of aligning need with assistance and the foundational role of water in livelihood sustainability, both having implications for the hundreds of coastal communities forced to relocate, mostly locally on the same island, in the next few decades. The imperative of addressing such deficiencies in an era of accelerating climate change and declining levels of global support is clear.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Water, Climate Change, Western Pacific, People
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q1-295 General
Divisions:	Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Biological and Chemical Sciences
Depositing User:	Krishna Kotra
Date Deposited:	04 Aug 2025 22:50
Last Modified:	04 Aug 2025 22:50
URI:	https://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/15110

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