Influence of Climatic Conditions on the Time Series Fluctuation of Yellowfin Tuna Thunnus albacares in the South Pacific Ocean

Singh, Ashneel A. and Suzuki, Naoki and Sakuramoto, Kazumi (2015) Influence of Climatic Conditions on the Time Series Fluctuation of Yellowfin Tuna Thunnus albacares in the South Pacific Ocean. Open Journal of Marine Science, 5 . pp. 247-264. ISSN 2161-7384

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Abstract

Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) is one of the most commercially important fish species for
South Pacific island nations and territories and for effective conservation efforts it is important to
understand the factors which affect its time series pattern. Our research was aimed at elucidating
the climatic factors which affected the trajectory of the yellowfin tuna stock in the Eastern and
Western South Pacific Ocean. We utilized various climatic factors for the years t − n with n = 0, 1, ∙∙∙,
8 and investigated their statistical relationship with the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of yellowfin
tuna stock from 1957-2008 for three South Pacific zones ranging from the East to the West Pacific
Ocean within the coverage area of the Western and Central Pacific Convention Area. Results
showed that the climatic conditions of: (i) the global mean land and ocean temperature index
(LOTI), (ii) the Pacific warm pool index (PWI) and (iii) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) had significant
relationship with the CPUE of yellowfin tuna in all three zones. LOTI, PWI and SOI were used
as independent variables and fitted through modeling to replicate the CPUE trajectory of the yellowfin
tuna in Zone 1, Zone 2 and Zone 3. Model selection was based on significant parameter estimates
(p < 0.05), Akaikes Information Criterion (AIC) and R2 values. Models selected for all three
zones had LOTI, PWI and SOI as the independent variables. This study shows that LOTI, PWI and
SOI are climatic conditions which have significant impact on the fluctuation pattern of the yellowfin
tuna CPUE in the Eastern and Western South Pacific Ocean. From the findings of this study it
can be recommended that when management decisions are made for yellowfin tuna fishery conservation
and sustainability in the Eastern and Western South Pacific, it is imperative to take the
effect of climatic factors into account.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Yellowfin Tuna, Global Mean Land and Ocean Temperature Index, Pacific Warm Pool Index, Southern Oscillation Index, Thunnus albacares
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) > Q1-390 Science (General) Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology Q Science > QL Zoology
Divisions:	School of Agriculture, Geography, Environment, Ocean and Natural Sciences (SAGEONS)
Depositing User:	Ashneel Singh
Date Deposited:	13 Nov 2025 22:00
Last Modified:	13 Nov 2025 22:00
URI:	https://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/15173

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