Vanualailai, Jito and Deo, Arun and Sharma, Bibhya N. and Chandra, Subhash (2003) Nonlinear dynamics of the observed HIV - positive population size in Fiji. Pacific Health Dialogue: Journal of Community Health and Clinical Medicine for the Pacific, 10 (2). pp. 45-52. ISSN 1015-7867
Full text not available from this repository.Abstract
In this paper, the reported numbers of HIV-positive individuals in Fiji between and including the years 1989 and 2002 have been used to study the dynamics of the observed HIV-positive population size. The Fiji data showed a pattern that appears to begin to approximate the "S" shaped growth pattern. It is well-known in the mathematics literature that this nonlinear pattern is a natural growth phenomenon and that there are suitable mathematical equations--from the classical Verhulst equation to the recent Tsoularis equation--that can be used to study it. These equations generate two-dimensional curves, the uses of which are case-dependent. In this paper, the curves used are the Logistic Curve and the Gompertz Curve, which are known to be relatively accurate in predicting the short-term behaviour of the observed HIV-positive population size at the initial stages of growth. This study showed that the curves, based on the 1989-2002 data, gave the scenarios in which new reported cases could stabilize by 2005 or 2013. Based on the 1989-2001 data, both curves gave the worst-case scenario of continuous increase till the year 2020 when the numbers could begin to stabilize.
| Item Type: | Journal Article |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Biological and Chemical Sciences Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Computing, Information and Mathematical Sciences Faculty of Science, Technology and Environment (FSTE) > School of Engineering and Physics |
| Depositing User: | Ms Mereoni Camailakeba |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Apr 2003 14:34 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Oct 2015 21:50 |
| URI: | https://repository.usp.ac.fj/id/eprint/2843 |
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